I have been following a series on Ontarians on the move (written by Mike Moffat). He posts in Medium (here is the link): https://mikepmoffatt.medium.com/ontarians-on-the-move-2021-edition-17-waiting-for-seniors-to-age-out-of-their-homes-is-not-a-c16019130a6c
He has also written about the migration north to our area. With rising costs, I believe there are going to be new social changes…. what about you? Multi-generational housing (How are our kids ever going to be able to afford a house on their own?).
Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #17 — Waiting for Seniors to “Age Out” of their homes is not a solution to Toronto’s family housing crisis.
Seventeenth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #16 — Housing demand and the growth in the number of households.
TL;DR version: An oft-cited solution to the City of Toronto’s lack of family-friendly housing is that family-sized homes will “free up” as the population ages. The data tells a different story: Seniors rarely move out of the City of Toronto, they rarely transition into other housing forms, and show a strong preference towards “aging in place”. Turnover of family-sized homes typically does not happen until the residents are well into their 80s, as there has been a strong preference shown to ‘age in place’. In short, population aging will not solve the housing crisis.
A common response I receive on Twitter to pieces talking about population growth and Toronto’s housing crisis is “but Mike, how can population growth be the problem if many neighbourhoods are experiencing population decline?”
The neighbourhood level population decline part is true! Many neighbourhoods have seen little population growth over the past three decades, and some have even gone into decline: