Canadian Politics: 1) Liberal immigration pivot forces Canada to reckon with approach to labour shortages; 2) (Updated) ‘The deal is done:’ NDP Leader pulls out of supply and confidence deal with Liberals, 3) LGBTQ+ activists fearful of a Poilievre government, some say Trudeau should step down 4) In dueling TV ads, NDP and Conservatives try to define Poilievre to union voters, 5) What’s next for Singh and his broken political pact with Trudeau?
1) Liberal immigration pivot forces Canada to reckon with approach to labour shortages
Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press
By Nojoud Al Mallees, August 28, 2024
The Liberal government’s decision to reel in the temporary foreign worker program after loosening the rules to help businesses find workers after the pandemic is sparking a contentious debate about whether governments should even try to address labour shortages.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Monday that his government is bringing back stricter rules to stem the flow of low-wage temporary foreign workers, and he urged businesses to hire and train Canadian workers.
“Two years ago, in the aftermath of the pandemic and facing severe labour shortages, we adjusted the program for temporary foreign workers. That’s what the business community needed,” Trudeau said at the Liberal cabinet retreat in Halifax.
“But today’s economy is very different from it was two years ago. Inflation has started to come down. Employment is higher. We no longer need as many temporary foreign workers.”
Business groups have been in favour of more immigration and temporary foreign workers to help with labour shortages, but economists are pushing back against the notion that governments should intervene.
“Ideally they should do nothing, but it’s hard for governments to do nothing when employers are upset,” said Christopher Worswick, an economics professor at Carleton University.
Many economists argue that a tight labour market is good for workers and the economy because shortages force businesses to raise wages and invest more in productivity-enhancing technology.
“When governments and employer groups talk about shortages, it’s really not clear what they mean. Does it mean that we wished at a low wage, we could hire extra workers? Well, that’s not the way economies work,” Worswick said.
According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.
Following the Liberal government’s announcement, Worswick has called for the temporary foreign worker program to be abolished, which he says would involve phasing out the low-wage stream and merging the high-wage stream with the economic immigration program.
Prominent economist Mike Moffatt — one of the experts who attended the Liberal cabinet retreat in Halifax — is also calling for the abolition of the non-agricultural low-wage stream of the program.
“I think we should be careful with those kind of calls, because they don’t really match the reality of the economy,” said Diana Palmerin-Velasco, senior director for the future of work at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
Palmerin-Velasco said there are many low-skilled jobs that need to be filled, including in small communities where changing demographics are making it even harder to find workers.
She also pushed back on the wage suppression argument that economists like Worswick make.
“If (businesses) have to increase those wages by a lot to attract workers, who is going to pay for that? Cost is going to be passed on to consumers at a time when our economy is not looking great,” she said.
As for skilled immigration, Worswick said he’s in favour of Canada trying to attract the best and brightest. But economic immigration shouldn’t focus on filling labour shortages, either, he said, because it’s difficult to predict where labour shortages will appear.
“I think it would be better to just focus on the skill-based immigration. Stop talking about labour shortages. Tell firms to raise their wage offers if they can’t fill a position. Or, as the prime minister said … train your workers,” Worswick said.
The reaction to labour shortages after the pandemic was near-universal from business associations and politicians alike: Canada needed to bring more people into the country to fill those jobs.
Premiers applauded the federal government’s decision to increase its annual immigration targets. Ontario Premier Doug Ford was particularly vocal about the need for more immigration to help fill job vacancies.
In the spring of 2022, the federal government relaxed the rules for its temporary foreign worker program and a few months later, Immigration Minister Sean Fraser announced Canada would increase its annual permanent residency target to 500,000 for 2025.
While the loosening of rules happened under his watch, Trudeau did once staunchly criticize a similar rise in temporary foreign workers under the Harper government.
In 2014, he wrote an op-ed calling for the temporary foreign worker program to be scaled back dramatically and refocused to its “original purpose” of filling jobs when no Canadian workers can be found.
“I believe it is wrong for Canada to follow the path of countries who exploit large numbers of guest workers, who have no realistic prospect of citizenship,” Trudeau wrote in the Toronto Star.
“It is bad for our economy in that it depresses wages for all Canadians, but it’s even worse for our country. It puts pressure on our commitment to diversity, and creates more opportunities for division and rancour.”
As for whether the Liberal government’s pivot on immigration signals a change of heart when it comes to labour shortages, Worswick is unsure.
“I think that the housing crisis, if you like, is what’s tipped it,” he said regarding the shift on immigration.
“Governments like to talk about labour shortages. So, I’m not sure that’s going away, but I think the absorptive capacity issue is on the table now.”
2) (Updated) ‘The deal is done:’ NDP Leader pulls out of supply and confidence deal with Liberals
Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press
By Mickey Djuric and Laura Osman, Updated September 4, 2024
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has “ripped up” the supply and confidence deal with the Liberals that helped keep the minority government in power.
“The deal is done,” Singh tweeted, early Wednesday afternoon.
In a video posted Wednesday afternoon, Singh said he notified Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the decision.
“Canadians are fighting a battle. A battle for the future of the middle class. Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed,” Singh said in the video directly addressing Canadians.
“The Liberals have let people down. They don’t deserve another chance from Canadians.”
Trudeau said Wednesday he’s focused on affordability, housing and the impacts of climate change, not politics.
“I really hope the NDP stays focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, as we have over the past years, rather than focusing on politics,” Trudeau said at a press conference in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Singh and Trudeau reached the agreement in March 2022, committing the Liberals to implement several NDP priorities such as dental care and pharmacare in exchange for the NDP caucus supporting the Liberals on key votes like budgets.
Singh did not take questions Wednesday, and is expected to hold a press conference Thursday.
The decision doesn’t mean the government automatically falls at the next confidence vote. Rather, the NDP will determine how to vote on Liberal legislation on a case-by-case basis.
Singh said there is another “bigger battle ahead,” noting the threat of cuts from the Conservatives under their leader Pierre Poilievre if the party wins the next election.
“The fact is, the Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people. They cannot be change, they cannot restore the hope, they cannot stop the Conservatives,” he said.
“But we can.”
He said in the next election Canadians will have to choose between Conservative cuts or hope that the country stands united.
He announced his decision less than a week after Poilievre wrote to his NDP counterpart to demand Singh pull his support for the Liberals and force an election this fall.
National opinion polls suggest Poilievre’s stance on workers’ rights and the economy is resonating with Canadians. He continues to hold a substantial lead ahead of Liberals and New Democrats.
Poilievre called Singh’s decision a “media stunt” in a statement on social media Wednesday.
“Sellout Singh refuses to state whether the NDP will vote with non-confidence to cause a carbon tax election at the first chance,” Poilievre wrote on X Wednesday.
New Democrats say Singh asked the party to start building an exit plan in the early summer, and decided to pull the plug by mid-August.
The party says Singh had already filmed the video to announce he was leaving the deal before Aug. 29, the day Poilievre held a press conference calling for Singh to break the deal.
Last week Singh called the Liberals’ move to force binding arbitration to end contract disputes at the country’s railways a “line in the sand that was crossed.”
However Singh had begun re-examining the deal weeks before Aug. 22, when Labour Minister Steve MacKinnon asked the Canada Industrial Relations Board to impose binding arbitration to end a work stoppage at Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Canadian National Railway that paralyzed Canada’s transportation networks.
The request came just 24 hours after the two companies locked out their workers after failing to reach a contract deal at the bargaining table.
NDP’s labour critic Matthew Green told The Canadian Press earlier this week that as Canada’s only labour party the NDP has a responsibility to take “bold steps” to ensure there’s support for workers and their families, and others who are “struggling in this economy.”
Singh said Wednesday his party will deliver hope and relief, fix health care, build homes and stop price gouging.
Many of the affordability measures the Liberals have brought in over recent years, including dental-care benefits, one-time rental supplements for low-income tenants and a temporary doubling of the GST rebate, were NDP priorities. Some came about as a result of the deal.
In addition to dental and pharmacare programs, the New Democrats also used their deal with the Liberals to push forward a ban on replacement workers during a strike or lockout at federally regulated workplaces.
The two parties also negotiated a housing accelerator fund that allocated billions of dollars to help build more than 750,000 homes across Canada.
House Leader Karina Gould said Aug. 26 that she expected the deal to run until its end, which was to be June 2025. Her office reiterated those remarks Tuesday.
3) LGBTQ+ activists fearful of a Poilievre government, some say Trudeau should step down
Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press
By Lyndsay Armstrong and Sarah Smellie, September 4, 2024
As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau digs in his heels and pledges to stay on as Liberal leader despite dwindling public support, some LGBTQ+ activists say he is putting queer and gender diverse people at risk.
Queer advocates say a Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre would be dangerous for LGBTQ+ Canadians, and some are pushing for Trudeau to step aside to give the Liberals a better chance of winning the next election — which must be held on or before Oct. 20, 2025.
The executive director of the Newfoundland and Labrador Queer Research Initiative said she’s concerned about the potential harm of a Conservative government for queer Canadians. She pointed to Poilievre’s comments saying minors should not have access to puberty blockers and transgender athletes should be barred from women’s sports and change rooms.
“The normalization of this rhetoric is dangerous, and so are the potential policies that he could implement,” Sarah Worthman said.
Poilievre’s comments on change rooms and gender affirming care for young people serve to villainize trans people, Worthman said. “Poilievre has admitted on the record that he’s willing to use Section 33 — so there’s essentially no stopping him from rolling back different rights … especially the rights of trans and gender diverse people in Canada.”
Section 33 — known as the notwithstanding clause — of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms gives Parliament the ability to override certain portions of the Charter for a five-year term, but Poilievre’s office has said he would only use the clause for criminal justice reforms.
Meanwhile, Worthman said the Liberals would have a better chance of beating the Conservatives if they switched Trudeau out for someone new, but she didn’t say with whom. Worthman added that the federal NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, would also benefit from a change in leadership.
The Conservatives did not provide someone for comment, but instead sent an email with a series of transcribed answers that Poilievre gave to journalists between June 2023 and February 2024 on LGBTQ+ issues.
The answers include Poilievre in 2023 saying Canada should continue offering refuge for persecuted LGBTQ+ people from around the world. They also include Poilievre in February saying “female spaces should be exclusively for females, not for biological males” when asked if transgender women should be barred from women’s sports or being admitted into women’s shelters or prisons.
At the time, the Tory leader also said he was opposed to youth under 18 taking puberty blockers, medicine often used by transgender youth to temporarily suppress the hormones that cause puberty.
Helen Kennedy, executive director of Egale Canada, said there has been a marked rise in hateful rhetoric about LGBTQ+ people in Canadian politics, which has left “members of our community to feel like they’re being hunted at the moment by their own political leaders.”
“Certainly not every conservative is anti-LGBTQ, but right at the moment it appears that the leader of the federal Conservative party is using this as a vote-getter,” she said. “It’s really based on political opportunism … and it’s really alarming.”
A Statistics Canada report released this year reported 491 hate crimes targeting sexual orientation in 2022, marking a 12 per cent rise from the previous peak recorded in 2021.
Fae Johnstone, executive director of political advocacy group Queer Momentum, said she’s worried a Poilievre government would roll back the hard-fought rights of trans Canadians. However, both Johnstone and Kennedy stopped short of calling for Trudeau to step down as leader.
“I think (Poilievre) wants to normalize government interference in the private lives of Canadian citizens under the guise of parental rights, or protecting people from gender ideology,” Johnstone said.
Montreal-based Celeste Trianon, who runs a centre that helps trans people in Quebec who wish to change their legal name or gender marker, said Poilievre’s comments on gender-affirming care for youth are cause for alarm.
“What I’m most fearful of is the criminalization of trans people,” Trianon said. She said she does not believe Poilievre’s assertion that he would use the notwithstanding clause only for criminal justice reforms.
“Having passports that match their chosen name, or access to gender-affirming health care — if that ends up being criminalized, which is possible with the use of the notwithstanding clause, it’s going to amount to a de facto ban on trans lives,” she said.
It’s for this reason that Trianon believes the Liberals should follow the lead of the U.S. Democratic party, which has seen a swell of support since replacing President Joe Biden with Vice-President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee in November’s presidential election.
“I believe right now that’s what the Liberals need and, to a lesser degree, the NDP could benefit from this as well,” she said.
Randy Boissonnault, a federal cabinet minister who was previously Trudeau’s special adviser on LGBTQ+ issues, said in a recent interview queer people are right to be worried about what may happen if Poilievre wins the upcoming election.
“Poilievre has said that our rights, LGBTQ2S+ rights, are woke ideology. He has two members of his caucus who are part of the Canadian Pride caucus who do not come to meetings if we talk about trans matters,” he said.
Boissonnault, however, said Trudeau is the best person to lead the party though another election, adding that the prime minister is a champion of LGBTQ+ rights.
“We don’t need political leaders telling our trans community that they don’t belong … We have way too many LGBTQ2S+ plus kids that commit suicide simply because they think their lives are never going to get better. And I don’t stand for it and the prime minister doesn’t stand for it.”
4) In dueling TV ads, NDP and Conservatives try to define Poilievre to union voters
Courtesy Barrie360.com and Canadian Press
By Mickey Djuric and Sharif Hassan
Federal Conservatives and New Democrats agree on very little, but one point of consensus has emerged in recent months — labour issues will play a key role in the next federal election.
Both parties have launched television ads that attempt to define Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre to union voters, a group politicians see as having increased sway in the next federal election.
The commercial the New Democrats launched across the country last week is clearly targeted at its traditional base of rank-and-file union members. It features labour leaders describing Poilievre as a career politician who “has never been a worker and never stood with workers.” Images include shots of party Leader Jagmeet Singh on picket lines in various locales throughout the country.
The Conservatives countered that attack on Monday by releasing an ad of their own. Theirs argues Poilievre will bring a new beginning, “where hard work is rewarded, where there’s affordable food, and a home in a safe neighbourhood where everyone gets a fair shot at a good life.”
After showing images of late night workers such as nurses, servers and truckers, the Conservative party ad closes with a tag line: “after the night, no matter how long or dark, comes morning” as Poilievre appears on screen, smiling in a field at dawn. They also launched an accompanying radio ad attacking Singh for keeping his supply-and-confidence agreement with the minority government.
Both messages appeared to resonate with attendees at Toronto’s annual Labour Day parade, where participants said they’ll be paying attention to promises and actions from both sides.
Workers have been hearing a lot of talk from politicians lately, said Lily Chang, secretary-treasurer at Canadian Labour Congress, but what they really want is to see them put “their money where their mouth is.”
“People need politicians to make policy decisions and to make sure that workers have a chance to thrive,” she said at Monday’s march.
Federal parties have ramped up their efforts to court union votes as the labour movement experiences a renaissance, said George Soule, former NDP communications director, who is now a principal at the strategic communications firm Syntax.
“You see it in the (United) States where the sitting president actually went to a picket line, which by the way I’ll note is a place you’ll never see Pierre Poilievre,” he said in a phone interview.
Since Poilievre became leader two years ago, he’s met with more than 60 unions and visited over 200 traditionally blue collar workplaces such as factories, facilities and mills in eight provinces while claiming other federal parties have abandoned them.
But New Democrats point to his absence on picket lines and his silence after Canada’s two railways locked out its unionized workers, citing them as evidence that Poilievre is a “phony, fake and fraud.”
“You never once hear him talking about corporate greed, never once hear him taking on the big bosses,” said NDP labour critic Matthew Green.
“Instead he hosts these massive fundraisers in these multimillion dollar mansions while going out and putting on a workforce vest, and some fake scuffed up shoes, pretending like he’s been on the front lines the whole time.”
The Conservatives pointed to Poilievre’s recent remarks where he blamed Singh for selling out workers by signing onto a “costly coalition” that he says puts Singh and Trudeau ahead of Canadians.
Michelle Johnston, a union member attending the Toronto parade, described herself as an undecided voter. When she does pick a side, however, she said it will ultimately come down to policies that impact her, such as women’s health care.
“The candidates that are up there, I’m not sure what their position is,” she said regarding parties’ platforms.
Since Poilievre took the party helm two years ago, Conservatives have laid out several policies affecting workers. They include opposing the use of foreign replacement workers at electric vehicle battery plants and imposing tariffs on made-in-China EVs, steel, critical minerals and other products.
His party also supported a bill banning replacement workers, while vowing to keep the law in place if Conservatives form government.
It’s a change in tone from his earlier days in Parliament, where he voted in favour of a private member’s bill that sought to force labour unions to publicly disclose how they spend their money. He also backed another bill that unions said made it harder to organize in federally regulated workplaces.
Both bills were repealed when Liberals came into power.
National opinion polls suggest his shift is resonating with Canadians, as Conservatives have a substantial lead over other parties.
That includes George Smith of Toronto, who said he plans to vote Conservative for the first time in the next federal election.
“Their focus is serving the people and not themselves,” said Smith, who believes that vision will be reflected in their candidates and official election platform.
The Conservatives and New Democrats will soon go head-to-head in another way — at the ballot box in an upcoming byelection in a Winnipeg riding with a history of strong labour and New Democrat ties.
“(Poilievre) is trying to make the point he can take those working class seats. He’s doing a lot of talking, and this is his chance to show if he can actually pull it off,” Soule said.
Conservatives have ramped up their attacks on New Democrats and their leader Singh in recent weeks, and the NDP has reciprocated. Both parties sense change is coming.
“If you want the list of things that Canadians are looking for in the next election, frankly one of them is to replace Justin Trudeau, period, no matter what he does,” said Soule.
“I think it’ll be a pretty blue and orange election. Poilievre and Conservatives spend a lot of money on polling, they see that coming, so they’re putting up that fight early on.”
5) What’s next for Singh and his broken political pact with Trudeau?
Courtesy Barrie360.com Canadian Press
By Laura Osman, September 5, 2024
New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks in the Foyer of the House of Commons about the NSICOP report, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on June 13, 2024.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh may hold the key to trigger the next election now that he’s axed his political pact with the Liberals, but strategists say that could prove to be both an asset and a liability.
Singh put an end to the deal the Liberals have relied on since 2022 to keep their minority government from toppling, but he has not signalled plans to vote to bring down that government before the next scheduled election.
The party deliberately spread word that the end of the deal does not mean an election is looming, but that each vote would be considered on a case-by-case basis.
Singh would not take any questions after announcing the news in a video on social media Wednesday, but is expected to hold a press conference Thursday in Toronto.
The decision comes as the Conservatives lead both the Liberals and the NDP in the polls, and Singh tries to position himself as the only viable alternative to Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre.
The NDP will likely want some runway to differentiate themselves from the Liberals before the next election, said Mélanie Richer, Singh’s former director of communications and a principal with Earnscliffe Strategies.
“I think they really need to spend the next year talking to those voters who are looking for change in a way that’s a little bit less close to the government, that shows the concrete things that they’ve been able to do to make people’s lives better,” she said.
The deal has accomplished most of what the NDP had demanded, including a new national dental-care program, and, from a strategic perspective, gave Singh some added credibility with voters, she said.
But while the New Democrats have won over some support from former Liberal voters, they’ve also lost ground to the Conservatives, she said.
Singh may want time to offer his “vision of change that’s very different from the Conservatives,” she said.
Poilievre has won favour with working-class voters that in the past may have traditionally supported the NDP in key ridings, including in northern Ontario, said Conservative strategist Ginny Roth.
The Conservative leader is likely to continue to take aim at Singh for propping up the government, as he has for months.
Just hours after Singh said that he had pulled out of the deal, Poilievre had already called the announcement a “stunt” and challenged Singh to vote to bring down the government at the next opportunity.
“There’s an easy way for the NDP to avoid that line of attack, and that’s to either defeat the government, or to demand something from the government that the government’s not willing to give, or that will be difficult for the government to give,” said Roth, who served as Poilievre’s director of communications during his leadership race.
“They haven’t done that since 2015 and I don’t think they have any plans to.”
Continuing to support the government in upcoming confidence votes could be a political risk for Singh, said Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal and strategist with Perez Strategies.
But it’s likely less of a risk than remaining tied to the Liberals at this point, he said.
“Pierre Poilievre will no doubt attack Singh as being someone that propped up Trudeau and has no credibility,” he said.
“I think it will all come down to how persuasively he is able to communicate.”
The political landscape was drastically different when the deal was signed in 2022.
The Liberal government had just renewed its mandate less than a year earlier. The federal government had recently declared a state of emergency after the “Freedom Convoy” demonstration gridlocked downtown Ottawa and international border crossings in protest against COVID-19 restrictions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had just begun. And Pierre Poilievre had not yet been elected leader of the Conservatives.
Throughout the last tumultuous few years, Singh has helped Trudeau hold onto the longest-serving minority government in a very long time, Perez said.
If Singh’s decision leads to an early election now, it would be a political win for Poilievre’s Conservatives, he said.
Patricia is the Business Mentor and owner of Grow Vantage and a Past President of the Barrie Chamber of Commerce. She applies over 30 years of business experience (from start-up to corporate) to mentor entrepreneurs. Since 2011, she has held over 6,500 coaching and training sessions in-person and online. Through Ask For Directions Training, her entrepreneurial training program (and parent company Grow Vantage), and as a business coach, she works with start-ups who are new (or who have lost traction) to design, launch and grow their businesses. Along with 20 other expert instructors she teaches strategies in marketing, sales, communications, and finance, as well as practical techniques to increase productivity, and manage their businesses. In other words, everything entrepreneurs need to learn to grow and run their businesses successfully, and avoid the costly mistakes they can't even see coming - that lead to delays in growth and getting stuck.